Will the market grow or shrink?

Sensex being at 15000, we know that we went to a low of 7800 from a high of 21000. We recovered smartly in a short span.

We realized by now that, anything which grows suddenly can come down suddenly. However, it would not be right to say that we are again growing suddenly. Instead, we can say that we are ‘recovering’ smartly.

Let us understand, how this market grows. Though it’s difficult to explain precisely, we will give it a try.

Market is driven by investors who are investing in companies that contributes to an index like Sensex. These investors does great research on various parameters like past performance, projected performance etc. And this performance is linked to customers/consumers of that company’s product/services. So if the consumer confidence index (CSI) is good then market tends to grow better.

These consumers will consume the products or services only if they have enough money to spend. So, as long as he have a job and handsome salary and most importantly if there are products or services that he/she is interested in, then he/she spends.

Now consider a case where a product is priced very expensive. Let’s take an example. Any guess what example we are going to take? Real Estate..!!

When real estate prices increase due to greed of Builders or due to increase in demand etc, at one stage, prices will reach such a level that most of the investors will feel it’s very expensive so these consumers will stop investing in real estate. And the problem starts here.

Though he is earning handsome salary, he reduces spending thus affecting all dependents of Real Estate market. We also need to understand that sectors are depend on each other. To make our example simple, let us also consider that such consumers reduces spending on few other sectors. This results in decrease in demand and thus all the affected companies will have to cut costs by cutting salaries or cutting jobs which in turn will only worsen the situation as consumers have less money to spend. This will turn to a deadlock where one is expecting other to act first.

This is the time when investors will even stop investing in equity markets and will start investing in Gold or prefers to put their cash in Debt instruments like Fixed Deposits. This is the how market goes down. And when the deadlock that we discussed starts getting relaxed then slowly the market will recover and this is the state that we are currently in.

When people saw market at 8000/9000 levels, they though it may further go down to even 6000 levels but they lately realized that it was only going up. So what should they understand from the market? Never time the market.

If we are somewhere near market lows, invest more and if we are at market high, invest less. And if we are some where in middle, then invest consistently some amount so that you would be averaging your investment cost and most likely you wouldn’t regret for not investing or for investing.

Good Luck..!